Miami is banged up with Norman Powell and Nikola Jovic both sidelined, meaning this 'dominant favorite' is anything but full-strength. The Wizards have nothing to lose and young playmakers like Bub Carrington and Tre Johnson stepping into bigger roles with a chip on their shoulder. Fifteen and a half points is WAY too many to lay against a shorthanded Heat squad — the Wizards cover and nobody saw it coming!

The Wizards are decimated — Kispert is out with a fractured thumb and Washington's roster is a shell of itself, leaning on raw youngsters like Carrington and Tre Johnson for minutes. Miami is the superior team at home, and even with Powell and Jovic sidelined, they have more than enough firepower to blow out one of the league's worst squads. Give me the Heat covering -15.5 at home without hesitation.