The Wizards are massive +20.5 home dogs, and while they've got eight players banged up, OKC is also shorthanded with Williams out and multiple injury concerns of their own. A spread this inflated against a Thunder squad that may coast late in a blowout is exactly the kind of trap the sharps overlook — garbage time baskets and a checked-out OKC bench make this number too big to fade. Nobody believes in Washington, which is exactly why we do.

OKC is 55-15 and just destroyed the Nets by 29 points, proving their depth transcends individual injuries. Washington is without Trae Young and has no one capable of keeping this competitive. The Thunder's organizational talent and coaching advantage make -20.5 a number I'm comfortable laying against the worst team in the league.