OKC is fully healthy for the first time since early in the postseason, while San Antonio is dealing with multiple players on the injury report heading into Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder swept both the Suns and Lakers in four games apiece, showing dominant form, and SGA plus a healthy Chet Holmgren is simply too much firepower for this Spurs squad at home. Talent and health both point to OKC — lay the chalk.

The Spurs just knocked out Minnesota in a dogfight and are battle-hardened, while OKC has been sitting idle for a week — rust is real. De'Aaron Fox has been gutting through that ankle soreness for games already and isn't about to quit in the Western Conference Finals. Nobody believes in San Antonio, but 6.5 points in a heavyweight playoff series is a gift I'm not giving back.