The Blue Jays are severely undermanned on the mound with Berríos (elbow stress fracture), Bieber (60-day IL), Francis (UCL reconstruction), and Caballero newly added to the IL on game day, yet the +1.5 run line at -155 provides crucial insurance that Toronto only needs to avoid a blowout. Neither starter — Weathers nor Corbin — projects as a dominant arm, favoring a competitive, low-margin game where a depleted Blue Jays squad can cover the spread. The Yankees at home are the better team, but the injury carnage on Toronto is already priced into the moneyline; the run line offers a smarter risk-adjusted entry point.

The Yankees are a clean team health-wise heading into tonight, while Toronto is dealing with a banged-up roster — Alejandro Kirk (thumb, out until June), Addison Barger (elbow, IL), and CJ Stubbs among the missing. New York took the series opener 5-4 on May 19 and the line has them as home favorites; getting plus money (+128) on the -1.5 spread means we're buying a team with a healthy roster edge at a price the market is slightly undervaluing given Toronto's depth issues. Lay the 1.5 runs with the Yanks at home and take advantage of the Blue Jays' lineup attrition.