Cleveland enters as a strong home favorite (33-25) hosting a reeling Boston squad (23-31) that has lost 3 key pitchers to 60-day IL (Houck, Sandoval, Oviedo — all elbow), plus Roman Anthony on a wrist IL, decimating their rotation depth. The Guardians are healthy by comparison with only two minor IL absences, and at home with Jose Ramirez anchoring the lineup, Cleveland's situational edge here is overwhelming. Laying the run line at -195 on the moneyline reflects the market's confidence, but taking the Guardians at home with Boston's badly depleted pitching staff is the sharpest value on the board tonight.