Nobody believes in the Buccos walking into Citizens Bank Park, but the Phillies are banged up — Adolis García and Johan Rojas are both on 60-day ILs, and Brad Keller is out with forearm tendinitis, thinning out their depth. The Pirates sit at .500 (43-42) and are a live dog at +1.5 against a Philly squad that isn't as fearsome as that NL East record suggests. Pittsburgh gets no respect, but that's exactly when they bite back and cover.

The Phillies are the play here — they're at home at Citizens Bank Park, sitting at 47-38 and firmly in the NL East race, while the Pirates are a .500 club at 43-42 and getting beat up with key injuries to Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz, and multiple relievers. Philadelphia also just activated Zack Wheeler off the IL, a massive rotation boost that tips the pitching matchup firmly in their favor. Talent wins at home, and the Phillies have it in every facet tonight.