Boston is decimated in the bullpen and roster depth — Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Kutter Crawford all on the IL — while the Mets get Juan Soto in peak form (4 HR, 11 RBI last 10 games) at home. Even though Sonny Gray is a tough draw, the Red Sox pen is severely compromised and the Mets' lineup can exploit a thinned-out Boston staff late in games. At +158 moneyline, the Mets represent genuine value as a home squad with offensive momentum against a banged-up opponent.