The Pittsburgh Pirates get Paul Skenes on the bump at home, while the Milwaukee Brewers are severely undermined by a depleted bullpen with multiple relievers (Crow, Zastryzny, Dotel, Sisk, Rodriguez) all on the IL. Talent wins at home, and a shorthanded Brewers relief corps can't hold leads or close games against a Pirates lineup batting .262. Back the Pirates -1.5 with confidence.

The Brewers are absolutely banged up — Coleman Crow, multiple relievers (Zastryzny, Sisk, Carlos Rodriguez, Dotel), and catcher Endy Rodriguez are all on the IL, gutting their roster depth. The Pirates JUST swept a doubleheader against this same Milwaukee squad, so the momentum and the matchup are screaming Pittsburgh. Everyone's fading the Bucs as usual, but +1.5 at home with a shredded Brewers bullpen? That's a gift.