Zack Wheeler (4-0, 2.47 ERA) is a significant pitching edge over Jacob deGrom (4-1, 1.67 ERA) in what is an elite ace duel, but the Mets are decimated by injuries — losing Mark Vientos, Luis Robert Jr., Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill, and multiple bullpen arms to IL stints — giving Philadelphia a clear roster depth advantage at home. The Phillies are favored at -1.5 on the run line with plus-money (+117) on the spread, meaning we get value on a team with the healthier roster and the superior pitcher going on the mound. Buying the Phillies on the run line is justified given how thin New York's injured bullpen is, increasing the likelihood of a late-game blow-up for the Mets.