MLB — The Daily Card

The Phillies enter at 57-52 against a Baltimore squad sitting at 53-56 with a decimated catching corps — both Adley Rutschman (wrist) and Samuel Basallo (shoulder) are on the IL, a crippling blow to any lineup. Philadelphia is the superior team on paper, and laying -1.5 against a Baltimore rotation featuring Brandon Young (3.13 ERA) is a spot where the Phillies' offensive depth should be more than enough to win by multiple runs.

Everyone's sleeping on the Orioles at home, but Baltimore went a scorching 13-7 in July and gets the red-hot Brandon Young (8-2, 3.13 ERA) on the bump — nobody talks about him but he's been DEALING all season! The Phillies are limping in with Schwarber day-to-day sick, Johan Rojas gone for the year, and a beat-up bullpen, while Baltimore is battle-tested and playing in their own yard. Give me the home dog getting +1.5 all day long — Camden Yards is a trap game waiting to happen!

The crowd is blindly backing Arizona while conveniently ignoring that the D-backs are a walking MASH unit — Zac Gallen on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation, plus Gurriel, Lawlar, AND Tommy Troy all on the injured list, gutting their outfield depth. Meanwhile, Cleveland gets Tanner Bibee on the hill and is a fully healthy squad playing at home in Progressive Field. Fading this injury-riddled Arizona squad laying -1.5 on the road is free money — the public is asleep at the wheel as usual.

Toronto sends Dylan Cease to the hill with a sterling 2.46 ERA and 167 strikeouts — one of the most dominant starters in baseball right now — against a Cardinals squad missing multiple bullpen pieces and short on depth. Getting the home favorite with a dominant ace at PLUS money on the -1.5 is a rare pricing inefficiency that screams value. The Cardinals' depleted relief corps makes a multi-run Blue Jays win the high-probability outcome once Cease locks it down through six-plus.

Baltimore's Brandon Young is a dominant 8-2 with a 3.13 ERA, while the Phillies' starter is still TBD — a significant pitching advantage for the home side. Philadelphia is also dealing with notable absences including Kyle Schwarber (illness, day-to-day), Adolis García, and Johan Rojas on the 60-day IL, thinning their lineup depth considerably. The Orioles are 6-4 SU in their last 10 home games, and getting +1.5 run insurance against a short-handed Phillies squad makes this spread highly cushioned.

Despite missing Judge and Stanton, the Yankees still boast a far superior roster to a White Sox club decimated by injuries — Chicago is without Hays, Teel, Thorpe, Berroa, and multiple bullpen arms. On the mound, Shelby Burke brings a 3.19 ERA into this start against a depleted White Sox lineup, giving New York a clear edge to win by multiple runs. Talent wins, and the Yankees are simply the better team top to bottom — lay the -1.5 with confidence.

Nobody wants to back the Sox, but the Yankees are rolling into Rate Field without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Cody Bellinger, AND Carlos Rodon — that's a decimated lineup and rotation facing Sean Burke (3.19 ERA, 7-5) who is locked in right now. The White Sox are 1st in the AL Central, lead the league in ERA, and only need to stay within a run-and-a-half against a walking MASH unit — that's a cover waiting to happen.

The sheep keep blindly backing the Yankees pinstripes while ignoring that Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Cody Bellinger, Carlos Rodon, AND Clarke Schmidt are all on the IL — this roster is a walking injury report. Meanwhile, the White Sox are a winning team at 55-51 sending out Sean Burke (3.19 ERA, 7-5) against a gutted New York lineup that can barely field a competitive squad. Fade the brand-name Yankees loyalists all day long — the White Sox cover with ease on their home turf.

The White Sox are a decimated rebuilding squad with Drew Thorpe, Kyle Teel, Austin Hays, and multiple relievers on the IL — their rotation is in shambles. The Yankees counter with Shane Burke (7-5, 3.19 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) against Ryan Weathers (4-7, 4.25 ERA), a clear starter edge. Getting the Yankees -1.5 at +167 is massive plus-money value for a team that should win this game comfortably — the market is pricing in Judge/Stanton absences, but Burke on the mound against this White Sox lineup is more than enough to cover.

The Yankees are severely undermanned with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger all on the IL, leaving a depleted lineup that has hit around .232 against comparable arms. Chicago counters with Sean Burke (7-5, 3.19 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), who has reached 6+ innings in four straight starts with elite July command, making it very hard for a shorthanded New York offense to win by 2+ runs. Taking the White Sox +1.5 at home gives comfortable cushion against a Yankees team that simply lacks the firepower to cover a road run-line right now.