MLB — The Daily Card

Cam Schlittler takes the mound for New York with a dominant 10-6 record and a sparkling 2.04 ERA/0.91 WHIP, while the Cardinals send out Michael McGreevy who sits at 4-9 on the season — a massive pitching mismatch. The Yankees are 6-4 over their last 10 games versus St. Louis's 3-7 skid, and New York's staff leads MLB with a 3.31 ERA. At essentially even money on the -1.5, this is a gift — talent on the mound wins games, and Schlittler is the best arm on the field tonight.

Nobody wants to touch the Cardinals with McGreevy on the mound against a hot Schlittler, but the Yankees are limping without Aaron Judge (60-day IL, rib fracture), Giancarlo Stanton (IL), AND Cody Bellinger (IL) — that's a crippled lineup that won't run up the score. McGreevy's 3.57 ERA is quietly respectable, and all the Cardinals need is to stay within a run — they don't even have to WIN this thing. Everyone's counting St. Louis out, which is exactly when the scrappy underdog bites back and covers +1.5!

The crowd blindly backs the Cubs at home while ignoring that Chicago's bullpen is an absolute disaster with 10+ arms on the IL — who's closing out games for them, a bat boy? The Dodgers (69-43) are 6.5 games better than these Cubs, own a dominant road record, and get plus money on the spread against a relief corps running on fumes. Fade the sheep, back the Dodgers to win by 2+.

Cam Schlittler (10-6, 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) is one of the sharpest arms in baseball right now and faces a Cardinals starter in Matthew Liberatore posting a bloated 5.26 ERA — that's an elite-vs.-struggling pitching mismatch the market is practically giving away at -101. The Yankees are 62-49 overall and 26-23 at home, while St. Louis comes in at 54-57, and getting New York to cover -1.5 at near-even money against this pitching advantage is pure value.

Milwaukee (69-41) boasts a top-3 ERA (3.48) and starter Jacob Misiorowski is dealing at a 1.57 ERA with an 11-4 record, creating a massive pitching mismatch. Pittsburgh arrives severely shorthanded with Oneil Cruz (60-day IL, hand), Spencer Horwitz (10-day IL, hamstring), and Evan Sisk all unavailable, gutting their lineup depth. At +143 odds, the Brewers offer genuine plus-money value to win by 2+ runs at home against a wounded, .500 Pirates team on a 3-7 last-10 skid.

Zack Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in baseball at 10-2 with a 2.53 ERA, and he's facing a Baltimore rotation led by Kyle Bradish at 7-9 with a 3.74 ERA — that's a clear and decisive pitching advantage. The Phillies are the superior roster top to bottom, and Schwarber's day-to-day status should be manageable with this kind of arm on the mound. Talent wins, and Wheeler is the best talent on the field today.

Everyone's sleeping on the Blue Jays as an underdog here, but with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. listed day-to-day with a hamstring issue, Toronto's lineup is compromised — and yet they're STILL at home and dangerous enough to keep this within a run. The Cardinals offense is anemic with most regulars posting sub-.700 OPS, and St. Louis can't be trusted to blow anyone out by two runs on the road. Give me the Jays at home with the +1.5 cushion — they don't need to win, they just need to survive, and that's exactly what a beat-up but scrappy home team does!

The sheep are blindly backing Atlanta at home, but the Braves' rotation is a disaster zone — Strider, Schwellenbach, Gray, Early, and Lord are ALL on the IL, and beat writers are publicly begging for starter help 48 hours before the deadline. Meanwhile, Washington's Cade Cavalli is dealing at a 3.55 ERA and the Nats are quietly .505 on the season. The crowd sees 'Braves at home vs. lowly Nats' and stops thinking — I see a paper-thin pitching staff getting exposed at +161 value.

Zack Wheeler is an absolute ace at 10-2 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, while Baltimore counters with Kyle Bradish at 7-9 and a 3.74 ERA — a massive pitching mismatch the -1.5 spread hasn't fully priced in. Baltimore is banged up with Mountcastle (60-day IL), Rutschman (IL), and Westburg (done for the season), gutting the heart of their lineup. Getting +124 juice on the Phillies covering -1.5 with Wheeler on the mound against a depleted Orioles roster is pure value.

Gavin Williams (10-6, 3.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 168 Ks in 133.1 IP) is a massive pitching advantage over Arizona's Merrill Kelly (8-8, 4.86 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), and the Diamondbacks' outfield is decimated with Gurriel Jr., Jordan Lawlar, and Tommy Troy all currently on the injured list. Cleveland already beat Arizona the prior day on August 1st, and getting the Guardians -1.5 at +138 (plus money) represents strong value for a home team with an elite starter and a shorthanded opponent.