Brasileirão and MLB — The Daily Card

Boston is riding an 8-game win streak and sending Sonny Gray (14-2, 2.78 ERA) to the mound — one of the hottest starters in baseball. The Athletics are a walking injury report with Langeliers, Gelof, Kurtz, and multiple pitchers all on the IL, severely undermining their lineup and bullpen depth. Talent and health are both decisively in Boston's corner here.

Nobody believes in the A's, but Boston is absolutely banged up — Garrett Crochet and Johan Oviedo are both on the 60-day IL, and key offensive pieces like Adley Rutschman and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are also sidelined. Meanwhile, Oakland's J.T. Ginn is rolling with a 3.51 ERA and 8-6 record, and even with the A's own injury woes, getting +1.5 runs of cushion against a decimated Red Sox squad at plus money is a gift the sharps are sleeping on. Everyone counts the Athletics out every single night — that's exactly why we ride 'em here.

The public is sleepwalking into laying -1.5 with the Cubs on the road against a desperate Royals squad that features Bobby Witt Jr. tearing it up at .286 with 110 hits — this lineup isn't as toothless as the record suggests. KC's starter Lugo is a live dog at home, and the Cubs are riddled with their own bullpen injuries, making a blowout cover far from guaranteed. Fade the casual money on Chicago; the Royals covering +1.5 at home is the sharpest number on the board today.

Botafogo enters this Rio derby on a strong run (W-W-D-W) at home, while Fluminense is winless across their last 5 matches (4D, 1L) and depleted by injuries to Thiago Silva, Juan Pablo Freytes, and Julián Millán. The home side's own absences (Huguinho suspended, Santos and Allan out) are far less disruptive than Fluminense's defensive personnel losses, and -150 on a 0.0 spread against a side this out of form is a price worth paying.

Atletico Mineiro enter this Brasileirao clash in strong form (D-W-L-W-D-W) and are motivated by a Copa Sudamericana push, while Remo sit in the relegation zone with inconsistent recent results (W-L-W-L-D-L). The 0.0 spread means Atletico simply need to avoid defeat — a comfortable ask given the class gap — and their only key absences (Renan Lodi, Leo Duarte, Patrick) are offset by Remo's own missing piece in Tchamba and their inferior squad depth.

Zack Wheeler is locked in at 10-2 with a 2.49 ERA, giving Philadelphia a massive pitching edge over a Blue Jays rotation ravaged by injuries to Berríos, Francis, and Arrighetti. Toronto is also dealing with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. listed as day-to-day, further weakening their already anemic offense. The Phillies' superior run production (505 runs, 145 HR) against a depleted Blue Jays squad makes covering -1.5 at home a straightforward play.

Everyone's sleeping on the Nationals because Burns is pitching, but Washington is hitting .250 (7th in MLB) and riding a two-game win streak at home with CJ Abrams slashing .287 — this lineup can put up a fight! The Reds are missing Steer, Dunn, Lodolo, and multiple bullpen arms, meaning even if Burns dominates, Cincinnati's support act is shaky. Give me the Nats getting a run-and-a-half at Nationals Park — they just need to stay close, and that's a bet I'll take every time!

The public sees 'Yankees at home' and blindly hammers them, but Aaron Judge is on the 60-Day IL, Stanton and Bellinger are both hurt — this lineup is a shell of itself. Meanwhile, Atlanta counters with Max Fried (3.12 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) against Yankees' T. Mahle who is a disaster at 3-9 with a 5.13 ERA. The crowd is paying full price to back a hobbled Yankees squad — I'll gladly take the Braves +1.5 all day long.

Zack Wheeler takes the hill at 10-2 with a 2.49 ERA and elite 0.91 WHIP — one of the best arms in baseball — against a Blue Jays squad missing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (day-to-day, hamstring) and multiple key contributors to the IL. Getting the Phillies -1.5 at -105 is exceptional value for an ace at home neutralizing Toronto's already-depleted lineup, and Philly's rotation edge here is massive enough to win by multiple runs.

Atlanta enters on a scorching W8 streak with a 70-45 record and a superior 8-2 last-10 mark versus New York's 5-5, while the Yankees are without Aaron Judge (60-Day IL, rib), Cody Bellinger (10-Day IL), and Giancarlo Stanton (10-Day IL) — gutting their lineup depth. The pitching matchup further favors Atlanta, with Max Fried (3.12 ERA) starting against Tyler Mahle (5.13 ERA), making the Braves covering +1.5 a high-confidence play even on the road.