MLB — The Daily Card

Sonny Gray (14-2, 2.78 ERA) is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now, while Toronto counters with Jameson Taillon sporting a brutal 2-6 record and 5.96 ERA — that's an ace vs. a punching bag. Boston's pitching staff ranks 3rd in MLB ERA and the Blue Jays are a shorthanded 56-63 squad with multiple key players on the IL. Talent wins, and the Red Sox have a massive edge on the mound tonight.

The Orioles are limping in with a decimated roster — Basallo, Alexander, Eflin, Bautista, and Bassitt all on the IL, including their closer and key bullpen pieces — while Bailey Ober takes the hill for Minnesota with a 7-3 record in a favorable home environment. Everyone wants to crown Baltimore, but you can't plug all those holes and waltz into Target Field and dominate. The Twins don't need to win big — they just need to hang within a run, and with this crippled O's squad, that's more than doable.

The crowd is blindly backing the Dodgers while ignoring that Blake Snell is coming off a disastrous rehab start — 4 walks, 2 homers, 3⅔ innings — with a 12.00 ERA in his only appearance this season, and the Dodgers have lost 3 of their last 5 games. Meanwhile, Michael Wacha is a steady 3.44 ERA workhorse who has the Royals competitive all night. Fade the sheep paying -137 for a rotation tire fire; take KC +1.5 at plus money and let the crowd learn the hard way.

Sonny Gray is an absolute hammer at 14-2 with a 2.78 ERA, while Jameson Taillon is a disaster at 2-6 with a 5.96 ERA and 26 homers allowed — this pitching mismatch is enormous and the line hasn't fully priced it in. Toronto is also decimated with Adley Rutschman, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Trevor Story all on the IL, gutting their lineup depth. Getting the superior Red Sox squad at +104 to win by 2+ with an elite ace on the mound against one of the worst starters in baseball is pure value.

Philadelphia is a significantly stronger offensive club led by Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh, while their injury list (Marchán, Rojas, García, Keller, Banks) does not impact their core lineup. St. Louis's starter Andrew Painter is a concerning 1-8 with a 6.48 ERA, giving the Phillies a clear pitching matchup advantage. Getting a powerful Phillies squad at +150 to win by 2+ against a struggling Cardinals rotation represents strong positive value on the run line.

Benfica opens their Liga Portugal home campaign healthy and in sharp form, having demolished their last opponent 5-0, while Académico de Viseu are a significant class below. Getting Benfica -2.5 at plus money against a newly promoted side at the Estádio da Luz is exceptional value — elite talent at home covers this margin comfortably.

Everyone wants to sleep on Atlanta just because their bullpen is banged up, but the Braves are 70-45 and leading the NL East — they don't need your respect, they just need one run! The Yankees are a solid club but the Braves' lineup is one of the best in baseball, and getting +1.5 runs means Atlanta just needs to show up and compete. This line is disrespecting the NL's best team, and I'm here for that underdog energy all day long.

The crowd is wrong. Going the other way.

Corinthians head into this road fixture without Yuri Alberto, Memphis Depay, Zakaria Labyad, and Vitinho — virtually their entire attacking core — making it extremely difficult to generate goals away from home. Bragantino are the healthier side playing at their own ground, and getting plus money on a -0.5 home favorite in Brasileirão is a line that screams value. The injury mismatch is too pronounced to ignore at a price that should be closer to -120.

Boston enters at 64-52 with a scorching 9-1 last-10 record, while the Athletics sit at 46-71 and just 1-9 in their last 10. The Athletics' rotation ERA ranks 29th in MLB (5.47) against Boston's strong 3.48 mark, and J.T. Ginn's 1.67 WHIP as a starter is a concern against a Red Sox lineup playing at home in Fenway. With key Oakland bats like Brent Rooker (60-Day IL) and Zack Gelof (10-Day IL) missing, Boston's superior pitching matchup with Sandoval (3.38 ERA) and dominant recent form make them a strong -1.5 play despite the price.