MLB — The Daily Card

Sonny Gray is an absolute horse at 14-3 with a 2.79 ERA and takes the mound against Pittsburgh's Jeff Jones, who is 2-4 with a 5.03 ERA — a dominant pitching advantage. Boston is the clear talent superior here despite their IL woes, and elite aces at this stage of the season win by multiple runs. Lay the run and a half with confidence.

Nobody respects the South Siders, but Chicago is actually ahead of Detroit in the AL Central standings at 62-58 while the Tigers limp in at 60-61 — Detroit is the team that should be scared! The Tigers are banged up with Kerry Carpenter and Matt Vierling both on the IL, while Chicago gets to trot out T. Melton and his jaw-dropping 1.58 ERA. Give me the White Sox +1.5 all day — they don't need the cushion, but I'll take it!

The crowd is blindly backing the White Sox because they sit 2.5 games ahead in the division, but the public always overreacts to standings. Detroit's pitching staff sports a 3.47 ERA — 2nd best in MLB — while their starter Troy Melton is an absurd 7-1 with a 1.46 ERA, compared to Chicago's mediocre rotation. Fade the White Sox bandwagon and grab the Tigers at plus money with -1.5 — the sharps know Detroit's elite pitching wins at home.

Boston is an injury-ravaged shell of a team, missing Crochet, Rutschman, Anthony, Houck, Crawford, Story, and more key contributors all at once. Pittsburgh counters with Sonny Gray, who is pitching like an ace at 14-3 with a 2.79 ERA, giving the Bucs a massive pitching edge at home. The Pirates +1.5 provides a comfortable cushion — even if Pittsburgh loses a close one, the spread bails us out, and with this Boston roster depleted, a Pirates win outright is a real possibility.

The Rays enter this game on a blistering 9-game win streak going 9-1 in their last 10, posting a 41-18 home record against an Orioles squad sitting at 58-63 on a losing streak. Baltimore is shorthanded with Samuel Basallo (shoulder IL), Blaze Alexander (hand IL), and Shane McClanahan (back IL) all sidelined, while Tampa Bay's pitching staff ranks 1st in WHIP (1.14) and 6th in ERA (3.68). Getting the dominant home team at plus money (-1.5, +135) while they're playing their best baseball of the season is a clear situational edge.

Max Fried (2.88 ERA) gives the Yankees a clear pitching advantage over Logan Gilbert at Yankee Stadium, where New York's pitching staff ranks first in ERA. Seattle's bullpen is shorthanded with both Matt Brash and Cole Wilcox on the IL, making it difficult to protect a lead or keep games close. Talent and depth win at home — lock in the Yankees -1.5.

Everyone's writing off the Tigers because of their injury woes, but Detroit just beat these same Guardians 6-4 on August 11th and ace Troy Melton is sitting on a filthy 1.46 ERA — nobody's talking about that! Cleveland is missing Slade Cecconi from their rotation and Tanner Bibee is a shaky 4-12 on the year, so the Guardians are FAR from a sure thing to win by two or more. Give me the Tigers at home with +1.5 — they don't need to win outright, just keep it close, and this scrappy Detroit squad has shown it absolutely can!

The G-CRED sheep are piling on the Yankees while conveniently ignoring that Aaron Judge (60-day IL, rib), Giancarlo Stanton (10-day IL), and Cody Bellinger (10-day IL) are all watching from the trainer's room — this lineup is a shell of itself. Meanwhile, Logan Gilbert takes the hill for Seattle with a 3.42 ERA against a Yankees offense ranked dead last in average and runs scored, facing Max Fried who's been no sure thing at 4-3. The Mariners +1.5 is a gift — fading a paper-thin Yankees roster that the crowd is blindly backing because of the pinstripes.

Max Fried takes the hill with a sterling 2.88 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, while Seattle's bullpen is in shambles with Brash, Wilcox, Criswell, and Vargas all on the IL. Getting the Yankees at +149 to win by 2+ at home with an elite starter is massive value — books are overpricing Seattle's -181 number given how badly their relief corps is depleted heading into this finale.

The Yankees are severely depleted, missing Aaron Judge (60-Day IL, rib), Giancarlo Stanton (10-Day IL, leg), Cody Bellinger (10-Day IL, hamstring), and Carlos Rodón (15-Day IL, elbow) — a devastating combination of lineup and rotation losses. The Mariners counter with a healthy rotation led by Logan Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and face a patchwork Yankees offense that ranks near the bottom in production without its core stars. Seattle at +1.5 only needs to keep it within a run or win outright, and the situational edge here is overwhelming.