MLB — The Daily Card

Kyle Leahy (9-4, 3.38 ERA) has a clear pitching edge over Andrew Abbott (6-7, 4.13 ERA), and the Cardinals' injury report is relatively light compared to Cincinnati's, which is missing Graham Ashcraft and other key arms. Talent on the mound wins games, and Leahy's superior ERA and winning record give St. Louis the edge to cover the -1.5 tonight.

Wait — I must pick the SPREAD UNDERDOG, and in this game that's the Cardinals... but they're at -1.5, making them the spread favorite. Let me correct course: the true underdog play here is Cincinnati Reds +1.5, the home side.

The sheep are blindly backing the Yankees while completely ignoring that Aaron Judge (ribs), Giancarlo Stanton (leg), Cody Bellinger (leg), AND Carlos Rodón (elbow) are all on the IL — this lineup is a walking MASH unit. Meanwhile, the crowd is laying -1.5 on a road team that's missing half its murderers' row, against a Baltimore squad playing at home with plenty of motivation to spoil. Take the Orioles +1.5 and laugh all the way to the bank when this gutted Yankees offense can't cover a spread they have zero business being favored by.

The pitching mismatch here is glaring — Cleveland's Foster Griffin (13-4, 3.25 ERA) is one of the best starters in the AL, while San Francisco is trotting out Carson Whisenhunt (3-3, 6.11 ERA, 1.71 WHIP), a liability at the top of the rotation. The Giants are also banged up, with Matt Chapman and Victor Bericoto on the IL, thinning out a lineup that's already on a 51-73 pace. Getting the Guardians to win by 2+ at plus money (+116) against a depleted, sub-.400 road team is where the value lives today.

The Phillies send Cristopher Sánchez (16-4, 2.50 ERA, 187 Ks) to the mound against Miami's Cade Gibson — a massive pitching advantage at home. The Marlins are further undermined by key absences including ace Max Meyer (IL, neck) and Kyle Stowers (IL, hamstring), while their offense is badly depleted. At -110, laying -1.5 with one of the NL's best starters facing a short-handed Marlins squad at Citizens Bank Park represents exceptional value.

Cristopher Sánchez is an absolute ace right now at 15-4 with a 2.54 ERA and a league-leading 10.01 K/9, facing Janson Junk who sits at 6-7 with a bloated 4.41 ERA — this is a massive pitching mismatch at home. The Phillies are playing on a three-game win streak at Citizens Bank Park, where their offense and strikeout staff are clicking, against a Miami club that ranks poorly in nearly every key pitching metric. Talent this lopsided covers run lines — back the Phillies -1.5 with confidence.

Everyone's sleeping on Miami, but Philly is missing key bullpen arms (Bender, Nardi, Keller, Banks all IL) plus Trea Turner is day-to-day and Adolis Garcia is out — this is NOT the same Phillies squad the books are pricing! The Marlins are also without Max Meyer, but getting +1.5 runs with a decimated Philly 'pen means Miami doesn't even have to win outright to cash this ticket. They count us out every single time, and every single time we make the books sweat.

The sheep are blindly backing the Phillies because they're at home, but Cristopher Sánchez — despite his 15-4 record and 2.54 ERA — has shown stretches of inconsistency, and covering -1.5 runs is a completely different ask than just winning. The crowd is sleeping on the fact that Miami just went 6-4 over their last 10, are riding a win streak, and at +1.5 they only need to stay within a run or keep it close — something Janson Junk's matchup history suggests is very doable. Fading the chalk at Citizens Bank Park with a live underdog number like +1.5 at -105 is exactly the kind of value the public leaves on the table every single night.

Tampa Bay sits 74-49 and sends McClanahan (9-6, 3.09 ERA) to the mound against Baltimore's Brandon Young while the Orioles are a pedestrian 61-63 with multiple key pieces on the IL including Ryan Helsley and Ryan Mountcastle. Getting +134 juice on a Rays team this hot at home covering a 1.5-run line against a struggling Baltimore club is pure value — the market is underpricing Tampa's edge here.

Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez (15-4, 2.54 ERA) faces Miami's Junk (6-7, 4.41 ERA), a stark pitching mismatch in Philadelphia's favor. The Marlins' bullpen is severely undermanned with Bender, Nardi, and Henriquez all on the IL, limiting their ability to protect a lead if needed. Philadelphia at -1.5 for just -114 represents outstanding value given the run-prevention edge on the mound and Miami's depleted relief corps.