MLB — The Daily Card

The Yankees are on a 4-game winning streak and sport a dominant 3.24 ERA with a superior 72-55 record compared to Toronto's 63-66. The Blue Jays are decimated with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the concussion IL, multiple starting pitchers on the 60-day IL, and several other key contributors banged up — their lineup and rotation are both shorthanded. New York is the healthier, hotter team at home, and elite pitching wins ballgames — lay the -1.5 with confidence.

The Yankees are decimated — Judge (60-day IL, rib), Bellinger (10-day IL), and Stanton (10-day IL) are all out, stripping New York of serious offensive firepower. Meanwhile Toronto has quietly gone 7-3 in their last 10 and they only need to avoid getting swept by more than a run, which is a gift when the Bronx lineup is this hollowed out. Nobody believes in these Blue Jays right now, and that's exactly why I do — fade the paper tiger Yankees and ride the +1.5!

The sheep are blindly backing the Braves while conveniently ignoring that Atlanta is a walking MASH unit — Strider, Schwellenbach, López, and Suarez are ALL on the IL, gutting both their rotation and bullpen. Meanwhile, Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski is pitching at a 1.75 ERA clip and the Brewers are at home, where they get to dictate the terms. Fade the crowd, grab the plus-money on Milwaukee -1.5, and laugh all the way to the window.

The Phillies are scorching hot at 8-2 over their last 10 and riding a 6-game win streak, while the Cardinals sit at just 6-4 in that same span and are 66-63 on the season. Philadelphia sends ace Jesus Luzardo (11-5, 3.23 ERA) to the mound against Harrison Dobbins (3-3, 3.42 ERA), a clear pitching edge at home. Getting the Phillies -1.5 at plus money (+104) is a gift — the line is severely underpricing a surging home team with a superior starter.

The Brewers' bullpen is significantly compromised heading into this series, with Abner Uribe (forearm), JoJo Romero (appendix), Joel Kuhnel (shoulder), and Brandon Woodruff (shoulder/60-day IL) all unavailable — a brutal late-game situation. Meanwhile, Atlanta's lineup features Matt Olson's consistent production and starter Bryce Elder (8-7, 3.92 ERA) facing Logan Henderson (7-2, 2.70 ERA), but even if the Braves trail, Milwaukee's depleted bullpen makes it very difficult for the Brewers to hold a multi-run lead, making Atlanta +1.5 a strong cover candidate.

The Rays are the class of this matchup at 76-50 with a dominant 43-22 home record, while the Blue Jays limp in at 62-66 missing their best hitter in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (7-Day IL, head). Tampa's Isaac Seymour (9-3, 4.11 ERA) is a clear pitching edge over Toronto's Bieber (4-2, 4.99 ERA), and elite teams close out inferior opponents at home — the Rays -1.5 is the play.

Everyone's writing off this Giants squad because of their injury list and losing record, but Cleveland's bullpen is also dinged up with Shawn Armstrong on the 60-day IL and Rhys Hoskins sidelined — their lineup has real holes too. The Guardians' starter G. Williams (11-7, 3.75 ERA) is good, but the Giants' Roupp just needs to keep it close for SF to cover that +1.5 cushion, and a depleted Cleveland squad at 60-65 is no juggernaut. Nobody believes in the Giants right now, and that's exactly when underdogs bite back — gimme SF +1.5 all day!

The crowd is out here backing a 50-77 Angels squad like it's a charity case, while Houston trots out Patrick Lambert at 3.11 ERA versus the Angels' Grayson Rodriguez coughing up a 7.17 ERA — that's not a pitching matchup, that's a public execution. The Angels' rotation is a dumpster fire with Kikuchi, Bachman, and Anderson all on the IL, and you want to LAY points against the Astros at home? I'll take Houston to win by 2+ at plus money all day while the crowd burns.

The Cardinals (65-62) send McGreevy (3.48 ERA) against the Reds' Bryce Singer (5-11, 4.66 ERA), a significant pitching edge that the line hasn't fully priced in. Cincinnati sits at 60-66 and is without Spencer Steer (wrist, IL), weakening an already below-average lineup. Getting +134 juice to lay -1.5 with the superior team and the superior arm is a sharp overlay worth hammering.

The Cardinals (65-62) hold a clear edge over the Reds (60-66) with McGreevy's 3.48 ERA far outpacing Singer's 4.66 ERA on the mound, while Cincinnati's rotation is decimated by the losses of Hunter Greene (Tommy John) and Brandon Williamson (shoulder). St. Louis leads this series 2-1 and carries momentum heading into this finale, making the Cardinals -1.5 at plus-money (+134) a high-value play.