Brasileirão and MLB — The Daily Card

The Phillies get Jesus Luzardo (11-5, 3.23 ERA) on the mound against a Cardinals club that just lost Andre Pallante to a 15-day IL stint with elbow inflammation, forcing a weaker arm in H. Dobbins (3-3, 3.42 ERA) to take the ball. With Kyle Schwarber slugging 37 home runs anchoring a deep Phillies lineup at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia -1.5 at nearly even money is an easy chalk play.

Everyone's sleeping on the Blue Jays while the Yankees are a walking MASH unit — Aaron Judge (60-Day IL, ribs), Cody Bellinger (10-Day IL), Giancarlo Stanton (10-Day IL), and ace Max Fried (15-Day IL) are all out of the lineup or rotation. Toronto sends out Soriano (10-6, 3.23 ERA) who has been an absolute rock, and with +1.5 runs of cushion against a hollowed-out Yankees squad, the Blue Jays don't even need to win outright to cash this ticket!

The sheep are blindly backing the big-market Yankees at home, but the Bronx Bombers are walking wounded — Aaron Judge is on the 60-day IL, Bellinger and Stanton are both shelved, and ace Carlos Rodón is out with elbow inflammation. The crowd is overrating the pinstripes based on reputation, not reality, while Toronto's starter J. Soriano brings a sharp 3.23 ERA into a lineup that's missing its three biggest bats. Fade the Yankees hype and take the Blue Jays to cover the +1.5.

Corinthians travel to Curitiba without Garro (suspended), André (thigh), Yuri Alberto (thigh), Vitinho, and Labyad — essentially gutted of their attacking and midfield core. Coritiba have Memphis Depay available at home and are being offered at the cheaper price on a flat spread, making this outstanding value. Laying -125 on a paper-thin Corinthians squad on the road is a trap the sharp money avoids.

Cristopher Sanchez is dominant at 16-4 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, a massive pitching edge over Kyle Leahy (10-4, 3.24 ERA). The Cardinals arrive banged up — Pallante just hit the IL with elbow inflammation, shortstop Masyn Winn missed a second straight game with a sore thumb, and their bullpen depth is thin. The Phillies, playing at home with their ace on the mound, are well-positioned to win decisively and cover the -1.5 run line at the attractive -103 price.

Inter Milan open their Serie A title defense at home against a Monza side that will be without captain Matteo Pessina (knee, 4+ months) and Dany Mota, stripping them of key attacking and midfield creativity. The Nerazzurri are nearly fully fit with a deep squad featuring Lautaro Martinez, Barella, and Calhanoglu — at San Siro, talent wins, and Monza's depleted roster is no match for it. -2.0 at home in a Matchweek 1 showcase is a gift.

Everyone wants to fade the Braves on the road, but Milwaukee's bullpen is absolutely shattered — Abner Uribe, JoJo Romero, and Joel Kuhnel are all on the 15-day IL, meaning late-game leads are far from safe for the Brewers. Atlanta still has Matt Olson mashing (77 RBI, .261 AVG) and D. Lee posting a filthy 2.02 ERA out of the pen, giving them every tool to keep this within a run or take it outright. You give the Braves a cushion of 1.5 runs against a hobbled Brewers bullpen and they'll make you look like a genius — count 'em out at your own risk!

The sheep are lining up to back the mighty Dodgers at home against a Pirates squad sitting under .500 — classic square action. But the public is sleeping on the fact that the Dodgers are running a bullpen MASH unit with Glasnow, Casparius, Treinen, and Will Smith all on the IL, while Yamamoto (2.60 ERA) may not go deep against a Pittsburgh offense ranked 3rd in batting average. The Pirates +1.5 is a backdoor cover waiting to happen — you only need Pittsburgh to keep it within a run, and this battered Dodger 'pen makes that very achievable at near-even money.

This is Matchweek 1 of Ligue 1 and Le Mans is a newly-promoted side stepping up from a lower division, making their top-flight home debut against a battle-tested Brest squad with quality attackers like Mama Balde, Ludovic Ajorque, and Romain Del Castillo. Le Mans is additionally undermined by key absences — Harold Voyer and Brendan Chardonnet are both out, with Hugo Magnetti doubtful — stripping away the defensive solidity that earned them promotion. Getting Brest on a flat spread at near-even money (-105) against a shorthanded, inexperienced Ligue 1 side is pure value.

Inter Milan enter this Serie A opener with no major injury concerns, while Monza are already without captain Matteo Pessina (knee, 4+ months out) — a significant leadership and midfield void heading into Matchweek 1. Inter have dominated this fixture historically, winning their last two H2H Serie A meetings, and with a full squad at the Meazza against a depleted Monza side, covering a -2.0 spread at home is a well-supported play.