CFB, MLB, and Serie A — The Daily Card

The Phillies are at home at Citizens Bank Park, where they sport a strong 38-30 record, and their ace Cristopher Sánchez is posting a 2.57 ERA to anchor a rotation that ranks 3rd in runs allowed. Atlanta's bullpen is decimated with Reynaldo Lopez, Robert Suarez, and Joe Jimenez all on the IL, making late-game leads vulnerable — and at home, the Phillies have the firepower with Schwarber (40 HR) and Harper to get them over that -1.5 line.

Everyone wants to write off Florida State after their recent rough stretch, but they're playing this ACC opener at HOME in Doak Campbell Stadium — and SMU is banged up at running back with Link Rhodes, Christian Rhodes, AND EJ Kelly all OUT, gutting their ground game. FSU has some bumps too, but getting 3 points at home in a rivalry-flavored ACC opener? The Seminoles are more motivated than anyone is giving them credit for, and this line is a gift.

The sheep are piling on the home Phillies because they love a big-market crowd, but Atlanta just torched Philly 5-2 on September 4th IN THIS VERY SERIES and leads the NL East by 5 games — the Braves are the better team, full stop. The Phillies bullpen is shredded with Reynaldo Lopez, Tanner Banks, Brad Keller, and Johan Rojas all on the IL, while Atlanta's ace Chris Sale just dominated them days ago. Fade the public narrative, back the Braves +1.5 — Atlanta doesn't need to win outright, just not get blown out, and that's laughably easy for the division leader.

Udinese arrive in formidable form with four wins from their last five and are fifth in Serie A, playing at home where they've been nearly flawless. Lazio, by contrast, have lost three consecutive matches and are decimated by injuries — Rovella, Cataldi, Dele-Bashiru, Marusic, Pellegrini, and Patric are all out — gutting both their midfield engine and defensive spine. A pick'em price at -110 for the in-form home side against a Lazio squad in freefall is clear value; Udinese on the flat spread is the sharp play.

The Mets are starting a Triple-A call-up (Tong recalled from Syracuse) against Miami's Nathan McLean (3.06 ERA, 11-8), creating a stark pitching mismatch that favors the Marlins at home. Miami's Heriberto Hernandez has been swinging a hot bat with 24 home runs, and the Marlins' bullpen has weapons like Clay Holmes (2.39 ERA) available if needed. Getting the Marlins at +168 on the run line with this kind of starting pitcher disparity represents exceptional plus-money value.

Ole Miss enters this opener healthy and loaded — Trinidad Chambliss is back at QB and Kewan Lacy is 100% after shoulder surgery, giving the Rebels a full arsenal. Louisville, meanwhile, is banged up upfront with likely starter Anwar O'Neal missing and wide receiver Kris Hughes lost for the season, compromising their offensive balance. Talent and health both favor the Rebels, and -6.5 is a number I'll gladly lay against a shorthanded Cardinals squad.

Notre Dame is rolling into this game at Lambeau Field without two offensive linemen (Augustine and Jagusah), a wideout (Porter), and multiple defensive contributors — that's a banged-up squad for a Week 1 opener. Wisconsin's bruising run-first identity under Fickell is built to grind out close, ugly games and keep the score from ballooning, and the Badgers nearly covered a 20.5-point spread just by forcing Notre Dame to lean on a depleted O-line. Everyone's writing off the Badgers, but 20.5 points is a mountain even a healthy Notre Dame squad would struggle to clear.

The public is blindly backing Arsenal at home in a London derby, but they're missing both starting center-backs — Saliba AND Timber — gutting the defensive foundation Arteta's system is built on. Chelsea under Xabi Alonso only need to avoid an outright loss with the +0.5 cushion, and a depleted Arsenal backline with Mosquera also doubtful is exactly the kind of vulnerability the crowd ignores when they see 'Arsenal at the Emirates.' Fade the hype, grab Chelsea at plus-money.

Angers are dealing with a genuine midfield injury crisis heading into this match, with both Haris Belkebla (thigh) and Louis Mouton (knee) confirmed out, while Rennes enter with a fully fit squad — a significant personnel edge in what is otherwise a near pick'em line. Getting Rennes at just -120 to win outright against a shorthanded Angers side is strong value; the market hasn't moved enough to account for Angers losing two key central midfielders simultaneously. Rennes' depth advantage in the middle of the pitch should be decisive in a game where neither side needs to cover more than a half-goal margin.

Kyle Harrison (10-4, 3.45 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) has a massive advantage over Brady Singer (5-13, 4.83 ERA, 1.45 WHIP), with Harrison striking out 130 batters in 107 innings versus Singer's struggles across 141 innings. Cincinnati's rotation and bullpen are decimated by injuries — Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft are both on the 60-Day IL, and multiple relievers are also unavailable — leaving Singer with little margin for error and a depleted backend. At even money (+100), Milwaukee covering -1.5 with a top-10 starter against a banged-up Reds squad represents outstanding value.