The Pirates have a clean injury report while the Cubs are without starter Jared Jones (60-Day IL) and reliever Chris Devenski (15-Day IL), thinning Chicago's pitching depth considerably. Pittsburgh's Brandon Lowe is scorching hot — .359 with 3 doubles and 2 HRs over the last 10 games — giving the Pirates a dangerous bat at the top of the order. Laying just -1.5 at +128 home price represents real value with Chicago's rotation compromised and Pittsburgh rolling at PNC Park.

The public loves betting the Cubs — a popular market darling at 30-26 — but the crowd is completely ignoring that Pittsburgh is healthy at home with Oneil Cruz putting up monster numbers, while the Cubs are rolling in with their own injury concerns and a maddening hot-cold streak. Ryan O'Hearn being out actually tightens the Pirates' lineup and forces their role players to step up in front of their home crowd. The sharp money fades the Chicago name-brand tax, and so do I — lay the -1.5 with Pittsburgh at PNC Park.