The Cincinnati Reds are hemorrhaging pitching with Hunter Greene, Rhett Lowder, Emilio Pagan, and Pierce Johnson ALL on the IL — that bullpen is a house of cards waiting to collapse. Jonathan India is also out, weakening their lineup, while Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals have enough pop to exploit a depleted Reds staff. Everyone's counting out a 22-37 Kansas City squad, but +1.5 against a wounded home team is exactly the kind of spot where underdogs bite back!

The Royals (22-36) are one of the worst teams in baseball and are gutted in their rotation with Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, and Alec Marsh all on the IL — giving Cincinnati a massive pitching matchup edge at home. The Reds (30-28) are the clearly superior team, yet the line is essentially a coin flip at -112, which is a significant pricing error the market hasn't corrected. Fade the broken Royals staff on the road against a winning Reds squad at home.