The G-CRED sheep are blindly riding Portugal, but Croatia has already proven the point — they beat England's section survivors and showed classic Balkan resilience while Ronaldo's Portugal couldn't beat DR Congo or Colombia in group play. Modric and Gvardiol are locked in, and Ronaldo historically crumbles against Croatia's defensive structure in knockout football. Fade the crowd, fade the aging icon, ride the checkered shirt.

Portugal enters this Round of 32 clash as a deep, talent-laden squad while Croatia is confirmed to be without retired stalwarts Marcelo Brozovic and Domagoj Vida — two of their most critical midfield and defensive pillars. Those absences significantly undermine Croatia's ability to control tempo and execute their trademark knockout resilience, which is exactly the formula Dalić's side relies on to upset stronger opponents. At -135, Portugal is a reasonable favorite with clear structural advantages, and taking them on the -0.5 spread is a sharp play given Croatia's depleted roster.

Portugal enters this Round of 32 clash as the superior squad on paper, and Croatia is confirmed without key midfield anchor Marcelo Brozovic and veteran Domagoj Vida — two retirements that gut Dalić's ability to control tempo and grind out the upset they'd need. At -135 on essentially a pick'em spread (-0.5), you're getting Portugal's elite depth and Ronaldo-era firepower at a price that still offers real value given Croatia's depleted roster. In a single-elimination format, betting against a shorthanded Croatia side trying to manufacture a miracle is the sharp play.