Nobody believes in Paraguay, but France is walking into this Round of 16 without Tchouameni — a guy who's been one of their most important midfielders all tournament — and that's a massive hole in Les Bleus' engine room. Paraguay has been battle-tested and plays with nothing to lose, and getting +2 goals against an injury-dinged French side on the World Cup stage is exactly the kind of spot where giants get slayed. The world is sleeping on La Albirroja — I am not.

The sheep will blindly back France because they're a World Cup powerhouse, but the crowd conveniently ignores that Tchouameni, Ekitiké, AND Saliba are all out — that's a decimated spine of their squad. Paraguay is playing on home soil with a juiced crowd and only need a -2 spread to cover, while Les Bleus are limping into this knockout round. Fade the tourists, back the underdogs — the public never learns.

France enters this Round of 16 matchup as a dominant force — unbeaten through the group stage with three commanding wins plus a victory over Sweden, and Mbappe is healthy and on fire with a record-setting 10 knockout-stage goals all-time. The Tchouameni injury is a minor concern but France's depth is elite, and a -2 spread against Paraguay is a gift considering the talent gap. Chalk doesn't blink when a generational squad this locked-in is catching a soft number.