The sheep are blindly backing Brazil, but Paqueta is OUT and Casemiro is questionable — that's the spine of their midfield gone against a Norway side that's already beaten Iraq and Senegal and deliberately rested starters against France to stay fresh for exactly this moment. The crowd sees the Brazil badge and stops thinking; Norway are a battle-hardened, fully healthy unit playing with house money at +0.5, and the Seleção just needed a comeback to beat Japan in the round of 32. Fade the hype, back the Vikings.

Reports confirm Brazil is dealing with significant missing starters heading into this Round of 16 clash, while Norway arrives at full strength — that's a critical injury edge the -133 Brazilian line hasn't properly priced in. Norway also boasts Haaland as a lethal equalizer who can win a knockout game single-handedly, giving them legitimate upset upside. Getting Norway at +113 with a +0.5 spread cushion against a depleted Brazil side is exactly the kind of value spot sharp money targets.