The sheep are backing France at home, but this is a THIRD-PLACE PLAYOFF — a meaningless consolation game where motivation is rock bottom, and France just lost their starting center-back William Saliba to a back injury. England, meanwhile, is playing with a chip on their shoulder after Tuchel's tactical implosion against Argentina, and motivated squads in consolation games consistently outperform complacent favorites. Fade the crowd, back the Three Lions at +0.5 — the public is asleep on this one.

France enters as home side (Miami) in the third-place match after a strong tournament run — W over Morocco, Paraguay, and Norway — while England is coming off a demoralizing semi-final loss to Spain and faces the classic motivation problem of a consolation game. No major injuries reported for either side, so this comes down to squad depth and mentality: France, under Deschamps, historically treats these fixtures professionally, and -0.5 at -115 is razor-thin value on a side that's clearly been the more dominant team throughout the tournament. England's third-place curse (never won a bronze) and post-semifinal hangover make France the sharp lean here.