The Yankees are an absolute MASH unit — Aaron Judge, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, and Giancarlo Stanton are all on the IL, gutting both their rotation and lineup. Pittsburgh counters with Braxton Ashcraft sporting a dominant 9-3 record and 3.49 ERA, which is a massive pitching edge. Talent and health both point to the Pirates covering on the road.

The Yankees are missing Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Rodon, and Schmidt — this lineup is decimated — yet they still get +1.5 at home in the Bronx, and everyone is writing them off like they're a Triple-A club. Pittsburgh's Ashcraft has been sharp, but Ryan Weathers and a desperate home crowd can keep this within a run, and that's ALL we need to cash. Nobody believes in the Bombers right now, which means it's the perfect time to ride them!

The sheep are blindly backing Pittsburgh while ignoring that the Yankees, even banged up, are a 55-win juggernaut playing at home against a .520 Pirates squad. The crowd sees 'underdog value' on Pittsburgh, but fading a Yankees team with a 4-game win streak at -204 on the moneyline is exactly the kind of sucker play the public falls for — the Bronx is still the Bronx. Ryan Weathers on the mound for Pittsburgh against a lineup that grinds pitchers into dust? The G-CRED faithful are about to learn an expensive lesson.