Everyone's sleeping on the Orioles at home, but Baltimore went a scorching 13-7 in July and gets the red-hot Brandon Young (8-2, 3.13 ERA) on the bump — nobody talks about him but he's been DEALING all season! The Phillies are limping in with Schwarber day-to-day sick, Johan Rojas gone for the year, and a beat-up bullpen, while Baltimore is battle-tested and playing in their own yard. Give me the home dog getting +1.5 all day long — Camden Yards is a trap game waiting to happen!

Baltimore's Brandon Young is a dominant 8-2 with a 3.13 ERA, while the Phillies' starter is still TBD — a significant pitching advantage for the home side. Philadelphia is also dealing with notable absences including Kyle Schwarber (illness, day-to-day), Adolis García, and Johan Rojas on the 60-day IL, thinning their lineup depth considerably. The Orioles are 6-4 SU in their last 10 home games, and getting +1.5 run insurance against a short-handed Phillies squad makes this spread highly cushioned.

The Phillies enter at 57-52 against a Baltimore squad sitting at 53-56 with a decimated catching corps — both Adley Rutschman (wrist) and Samuel Basallo (shoulder) are on the IL, a crippling blow to any lineup. Philadelphia is the superior team on paper, and laying -1.5 against a Baltimore rotation featuring Brandon Young (3.13 ERA) is a spot where the Phillies' offensive depth should be more than enough to win by multiple runs.