AS Roma are unbeaten in their last six matches (W3 D3), conceding just 4 goals with three clean sheets, while Real Madrid have dropped two of their last six including a 1-2 loss to Atletico Madrid. Playing at Stadio Olimpico gives Roma a critical home edge, and with key Madrid returners like Camavinga, Bernardo Silva, and Güler only just back from absence, squad cohesion is a concern. The +0.5 spread means Roma simply need to avoid a loss — a very achievable outcome given their rock-solid defensive form and Real Madrid's recent inconsistency.