Historical matchup data shows Baylor has beaten Arkansas-Pine Bluff by an average of 45 points across their last four meetings (99-54, 99-42, 85-40, 72-45), making the -37.5 spread look beatable. UAPB is a road underdog from the SWAC traveling to Foster Pavilion for Baylor's season-opening homestand, where crowd energy and roster depth typically produce dominant performances. No injury concerns surfaced for Baylor, and the historical margin trend strongly supports the Bears covering this number.