Atletico Mineiro arrives with five players out to injury — including both starting forwards Borbas and Cassierra plus key midfielder Fred — gutting their attacking options on the road. Mirassol is fully healthy at home and getting this spread at a near-pick'em price of -105, representing clear value given the roster mismatch. With Atletico's recent LLLWW form and a decimated attack, backing the healthy home side at half-puck is the sharp play.