MLB — The Daily Card

The Mets are decimated heading into Progressive Field — Juan Soto (calf), Mark Vientos (hand fracture), and multiple key relievers are all on the IL, gutting both their lineup and bullpen depth. Cleveland's starter C. Scott (2.99 ERA) has a clear edge over the Mets' Secconi (4.78 ERA), and the Guardians are at home where they've been dominant all season. Talent wins, and right now the Mets simply don't have enough of it healthy to knock off a full-strength Cleveland squad.

Everyone's counting the Mets out because Juan Soto is banged up, but this squad is still 5th in the NL East and Christian Scott brings a sharp 2.99 ERA to the mound against a Guardians offense that ranks dead last in slugging — they can't put the ball in the seats! The Mets only need to avoid getting swept by 2+ runs, and with Cleveland sporting a 3-7 record over their last 10, this so-called powerhouse is stumbling hard enough for New York to grab that cover.

The casual crowd will blindly back the Mets because 'Juan Soto team' — except Soto is sitting on the 10-day IL with a calf strain, and so is Mark Vientos with a broken hand, gutting New York's lineup. Meanwhile, Cleveland's starter C. Scott is rolling with a 2.99 ERA against the Mets' Sacconi at a bloated 4.78, and the Guardians are at home where they feast on a banged-up New York squad. Fade the Mets hype machine and grab Cleveland at plus money — the crowd is paying for a star who isn't even playing.

The Mets are decimated with Juan Soto, Mark Vientos, Clay Holmes, and multiple relievers all on the IL, sending a banged-up 46-63 club into Progressive Field. Cleveland's starter Caleb Scott carries a sharp 2.99 ERA against the Mets' Spencer Cecconi at 4.78, a significant pitching edge the market hasn't fully priced into a +139 number. Getting the superior, healthier home team at plus money to cover -1.5 is textbook value.

Philadelphia sends Jesus Luzardo (3.57 ERA, 157 K) against Washington's Zach Littell (4.94 ERA), a massive pitching advantage on paper. The Nationals are further crippled by James Wood being day-to-day with a side injury, two bullpen arms on the IL (Poulin, Lord), and a pattern of surrendering 15 runs in the ninth inning across recent games against Philly. With Schwarber's 33 home runs powering a loaded Phillies lineup, covering -1.5 at home at -122 represents clear value given Washington's depleted roster and pitching vulnerabilities.

Cam Schlittler takes the mound for New York with a dominant 10-6 record and a sparkling 2.04 ERA/0.91 WHIP, while the Cardinals send out Michael McGreevy who sits at 4-9 on the season — a massive pitching mismatch. The Yankees are 6-4 over their last 10 games versus St. Louis's 3-7 skid, and New York's staff leads MLB with a 3.31 ERA. At essentially even money on the -1.5, this is a gift — talent on the mound wins games, and Schlittler is the best arm on the field tonight.

Nobody wants to touch the Cardinals with McGreevy on the mound against a hot Schlittler, but the Yankees are limping without Aaron Judge (60-day IL, rib fracture), Giancarlo Stanton (IL), AND Cody Bellinger (IL) — that's a crippled lineup that won't run up the score. McGreevy's 3.57 ERA is quietly respectable, and all the Cardinals need is to stay within a run — they don't even have to WIN this thing. Everyone's counting St. Louis out, which is exactly when the scrappy underdog bites back and covers +1.5!

The crowd blindly backs the Cubs at home while ignoring that Chicago's bullpen is an absolute disaster with 10+ arms on the IL — who's closing out games for them, a bat boy? The Dodgers (69-43) are 6.5 games better than these Cubs, own a dominant road record, and get plus money on the spread against a relief corps running on fumes. Fade the sheep, back the Dodgers to win by 2+.

Cam Schlittler (10-6, 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) is one of the sharpest arms in baseball right now and faces a Cardinals starter in Matthew Liberatore posting a bloated 5.26 ERA — that's an elite-vs.-struggling pitching mismatch the market is practically giving away at -101. The Yankees are 62-49 overall and 26-23 at home, while St. Louis comes in at 54-57, and getting New York to cover -1.5 at near-even money against this pitching advantage is pure value.

Milwaukee (69-41) boasts a top-3 ERA (3.48) and starter Jacob Misiorowski is dealing at a 1.57 ERA with an 11-4 record, creating a massive pitching mismatch. Pittsburgh arrives severely shorthanded with Oneil Cruz (60-day IL, hand), Spencer Horwitz (10-day IL, hamstring), and Evan Sisk all unavailable, gutting their lineup depth. At +143 odds, the Brewers offer genuine plus-money value to win by 2+ runs at home against a wounded, .500 Pirates team on a 3-7 last-10 skid.