Brasileirão and MLB — The Daily Card

Schlittler takes the ball at 10-6 with a sterling 2.21 ERA and 182 strikeouts against a Blue Jays squad sending a TBD starter — that mismatch on the mound is all I need. Toronto is 59-64, sitting fourth in the AL East, while the Yankees (68-53) are a legitimate contender grinding through their injury concerns. Talent on the mound wins ballgames, and Schlittler is the best arm in this game by a wide margin.

The Yankees are absolutely BANGED UP — Judge, Stanton, Bellinger, and ace Carlos Rodon are ALL on the injured list, leaving New York's lineup looking like a AAA squad masquerading in pinstripes. Nobody respects the Blue Jays at home, but Toronto is getting +1.5 runs against a walking MASH unit, and Vladdy Jr. playing through a day-to-day shoulder issue just adds to that gritty, nobody-believes-in-us energy. You want to bet AGAINST the team missing its two biggest sluggers and its ace? Not me — give me the Jays all day long!

The public is blindly chasing the Padres' hot streak, but the crowd always overpays for recency bias — San Diego just got their feel-good win Friday night and the sharp money fades the hangover. Cleveland at home with plus-money odds on -1.5 is a gift the books are dangling in front of sheep, and Gavin Williams gets a chance to bounce back in front of a motivated home crowd hungry for revenge. The Padres are missing Nick Pivetta for 60 days and the public is too busy riding the wave to notice the rotation is cracking underneath them.

Fluminense just sacked head coach Luis Zubeldia on Thursday and have drawn all five of their last matches — a rudderless, low-momentum side entering a pivotal fixture. Palmeiras leads the Brasileirão table at 14W-6D-2L with a +22 goal differential and won the last H2H 2-1 in February. Getting the league's best team at -121 on a flat spread against a club in managerial chaos is straightforward value.

San Francisco sends Luke Webb (7-7, 3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) to the mound against Colorado's Matt Lorenzen, who is one of the worst starters in baseball at 3-10 with a 6.83 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over 112 innings. The Rockies are 48-73 on the season and arrive with a depleted roster including Kyle Karros and Tyler Freeman on the IL, while the Giants get this matchup at home in Oracle Park where the thin Colorado pitching is especially vulnerable — and at +119 odds, laying -1.5 with a quality starter against a bottom-tier rotation is exceptional value.

Sonny Gray is an absolute horse at 14-3 with a 2.79 ERA and takes the mound against Pittsburgh's Jeff Jones, who is 2-4 with a 5.03 ERA — a dominant pitching advantage. Boston is the clear talent superior here despite their IL woes, and elite aces at this stage of the season win by multiple runs. Lay the run and a half with confidence.

Nobody respects the South Siders, but Chicago is actually ahead of Detroit in the AL Central standings at 62-58 while the Tigers limp in at 60-61 — Detroit is the team that should be scared! The Tigers are banged up with Kerry Carpenter and Matt Vierling both on the IL, while Chicago gets to trot out T. Melton and his jaw-dropping 1.58 ERA. Give me the White Sox +1.5 all day — they don't need the cushion, but I'll take it!

The crowd is blindly backing the White Sox because they sit 2.5 games ahead in the division, but the public always overreacts to standings. Detroit's pitching staff sports a 3.47 ERA — 2nd best in MLB — while their starter Troy Melton is an absurd 7-1 with a 1.46 ERA, compared to Chicago's mediocre rotation. Fade the White Sox bandwagon and grab the Tigers at plus money with -1.5 — the sharps know Detroit's elite pitching wins at home.

Boston is an injury-ravaged shell of a team, missing Crochet, Rutschman, Anthony, Houck, Crawford, Story, and more key contributors all at once. Pittsburgh counters with Sonny Gray, who is pitching like an ace at 14-3 with a 2.79 ERA, giving the Bucs a massive pitching edge at home. The Pirates +1.5 provides a comfortable cushion — even if Pittsburgh loses a close one, the spread bails us out, and with this Boston roster depleted, a Pirates win outright is a real possibility.

The Rays enter this game on a blistering 9-game win streak going 9-1 in their last 10, posting a 41-18 home record against an Orioles squad sitting at 58-63 on a losing streak. Baltimore is shorthanded with Samuel Basallo (shoulder IL), Blaze Alexander (hand IL), and Shane McClanahan (back IL) all sidelined, while Tampa Bay's pitching staff ranks 1st in WHIP (1.14) and 6th in ERA (3.68). Getting the dominant home team at plus money (-1.5, +135) while they're playing their best baseball of the season is a clear situational edge.