MLB and Primeira Liga — The Daily Card

Sonny Gray (14-3, 2.79 ERA) is an absolute ace right now, while Pittsburgh counters with Jared Jones struggling at 2-4 with a 5.03 ERA — a massive pitching mismatch. The Pirates are also decimated by injuries, with Mitch Keller, Oneil Cruz, and Ryan O'Hearn all on the IL, leaving Pittsburgh without the firepower to keep this close. Boston's talent on the mound should dominate and cover the -1.5 with room to spare.

Everyone sees the banged-up Yankees — Judge on the 60-day IL, Stanton and Bellinger sidelined — and writes them off, but this crew is still 68-55 and grinding! They're sending Ryan Weathers (3.69 ERA) against Dylan Cease, but Toronto is a 14.5-game sub-.500 afterthought with Vladdy Jr. on the IL themselves and a rotation full of question marks. The Bombers only need to stay within a run — and a battle-tested, playoff-chasing squad with nothing to lose and a chip on their shoulder is EXACTLY the kind of team that covers +1.5.

The crowd is wrong. Going the other way.

Arouca enters this match with Javier Sanchez injured and Diogo Monteiro suspended — both central defenders — leaving their backline critically shorthanded in just Week 2. Moreirense, meanwhile, gets Maracas back from suspension to solidify their own defensive structure, with only Dinis Pinto listed out. Taking Moreirense +0.5 means they cover with a draw or win, and a depleted Arouca back four at home is far from the fortress the line implies.

The Yankees are severely depleted with Aaron Judge (60-day IL, rib), Giancarlo Stanton (10-day IL, leg), Cody Bellinger (10-day IL, leg), and Carlos Rodon (15-day IL, elbow) all out, yet New York sends R. Weathers (3.69 ERA) against Toronto's Dylan Cease who is dominant at 2.40 ERA — making a blowout loss unlikely but a competitive game very plausible on the +1.5 cushion. The Blue Jays sit 14.5 games back at 61-64 and while they've won 7 of their last 10, they are not a team with the consistent offense to routinely win by 2+ runs at home, giving the Yankees strong value to cover this generous spread.

Schlittler takes the ball at 10-6 with a sterling 2.21 ERA and 182 strikeouts against a Blue Jays squad sending a TBD starter — that mismatch on the mound is all I need. Toronto is 59-64, sitting fourth in the AL East, while the Yankees (68-53) are a legitimate contender grinding through their injury concerns. Talent on the mound wins ballgames, and Schlittler is the best arm in this game by a wide margin.

The Yankees are absolutely BANGED UP — Judge, Stanton, Bellinger, and ace Carlos Rodon are ALL on the injured list, leaving New York's lineup looking like a AAA squad masquerading in pinstripes. Nobody respects the Blue Jays at home, but Toronto is getting +1.5 runs against a walking MASH unit, and Vladdy Jr. playing through a day-to-day shoulder issue just adds to that gritty, nobody-believes-in-us energy. You want to bet AGAINST the team missing its two biggest sluggers and its ace? Not me — give me the Jays all day long!

The public is blindly chasing the Padres' hot streak, but the crowd always overpays for recency bias — San Diego just got their feel-good win Friday night and the sharp money fades the hangover. Cleveland at home with plus-money odds on -1.5 is a gift the books are dangling in front of sheep, and Gavin Williams gets a chance to bounce back in front of a motivated home crowd hungry for revenge. The Padres are missing Nick Pivetta for 60 days and the public is too busy riding the wave to notice the rotation is cracking underneath them.

Fluminense just sacked head coach Luis Zubeldia on Thursday and have drawn all five of their last matches — a rudderless, low-momentum side entering a pivotal fixture. Palmeiras leads the Brasileirão table at 14W-6D-2L with a +22 goal differential and won the last H2H 2-1 in February. Getting the league's best team at -121 on a flat spread against a club in managerial chaos is straightforward value.

San Francisco sends Luke Webb (7-7, 3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) to the mound against Colorado's Matt Lorenzen, who is one of the worst starters in baseball at 3-10 with a 6.83 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over 112 innings. The Rockies are 48-73 on the season and arrive with a depleted roster including Kyle Karros and Tyler Freeman on the IL, while the Giants get this matchup at home in Oracle Park where the thin Colorado pitching is especially vulnerable — and at +119 odds, laying -1.5 with a quality starter against a bottom-tier rotation is exceptional value.