The Cavaliers are a 52-win ECF squad getting DISRESPECTED at +7.5 — this isn't some lottery team, this is an Eastern Conference Finals contender! Their only injury concern is Larry Nance Jr. (GTD, illness), while the Knicks come in on a loss and riding home-court hype that the line is already inflating way too much. Cleveland covers this number or my name isn't The Underdog.

The sheep are blindly backing the Knicks at home, but the market already prices Cleveland as a 57.5% series favorite — meaning the crowd is literally fading the better team. Donovan Mitchell just dropped a blowout 31-point Game 7 win and is locked in with a chip on his shoulder against his hometown team, while New York just dropped their last regular-season game and enters on a skid. A -7.5 home spread for a team the market doesn't even favor to win the series? The public is getting clowned — give me the Cavaliers and the points.

This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Madison Square Garden, where the Knicks hold a massive home-court advantage. New York's +6.4 scoring differential (116.5 PPG scored, 110.1 allowed) is elite, and OG Anunoby is confirmed healthy for the series. Cleveland's Larry Nance Jr. is GTD with an illness — while he's a role player, it's a situational edge for the Knicks, who are also well-rested having closed out Detroit while Cleveland just survived a brutal Game 7 against the Pistons by 31 points, suggesting some variance in their form.

The Knicks have their full rotation healthy — OG Anunoby is expected to play — while Cleveland is without Nance Jr. due to illness heading into Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. New York is the deeper, more battle-tested squad hosting at MSG, and talent wins on the big stage. Back the Knicks to cover the 7.5 at home.