The crowd is blindly riding the home team USA because it's a World Cup opener on home soil — classic overreaction to the moment, not the matchup. Paraguay beat Brazil, Uruguay, AND Argentina in CONMEBOL qualifying and brings one of the best defensive records in South America under Gustavo Alfaro, a tactical mastermind built for knockout-style pressure games. The crowd is buying the hype; I'm taking the battle-tested underdogs who've already slayed giants to cash at +money.

The USMNT enters their World Cup opener with a full 26-man roster available, including Chris Richards returning from ankle injury — a significant boost to their defensive line. Paraguay, meanwhile, suffered a major blow with Enciso stretchered off in their pre-tournament friendly, depleting their attack. Playing at home in Los Angeles with crowd support, a fully healthy USA squad at -0.5 (-105) represents strong value against a shorthanded Paraguay side.