France is the moneyline favorite at -150, and critically, Mbappé is confirmed fully fit after his ankle scare against Morocco — the world's best player healthy is a massive edge in a semi-final. Les Bleus have the individual brilliance and tournament pedigree to handle Spain's possession game, and with the captain locked in and ready to go, I'm riding France with full confidence.

Spain is the juicy +130 underdog despite being an elite, battle-tested side that just gutted out a last-gasp 2-1 win over Belgium with 2.08 xG — they are NOT being outplayed by anyone. France's captain Mbappé only just recovered from an ankle sprain, and the world is anointing Les Bleus while completely ignoring that Rodri and Spain's machine have looked surgically efficient all tournament. Everyone's counting out La Roja — that's exactly when they're most dangerous.

The sheep are all on France while Spain is quietly running the most statistically dominant defense in World Cup history — fewest shots on target faced per match since 1966, and a record-low average xG against. The crowd is seduced by Mbappe's star power while completely ignoring that Spain's defensive machine hasn't been cracked all tournament. Fade the France hype, ride the best defense in the world at +130 value.